Generated: 2026-04-09T07:02
1. The ceasefire rally is real, but the oil signal is not settled.
Yesterday’s move was violent: U.S. equities ripped higher and crude collapsed as markets priced a lower probability of a sustained Strait of Hormuz disruption. This morning, the market is already testing that optimism. Oil is rebounding as investors question how durable the U.S.-Iran ceasefire actually is.
Why it matters: the entire cross-asset move still runs through energy. If crude stays lower, inflation pressure eases, rate-cut expectations can rebuild, and cyclicals breathe. If oil snaps back, the relief rally fades fast.
2. The Fed minutes confirmed the real macro problem: upside inflation risk, downside growth risk.
The March 17-18 FOMC minutes released on April 8, 2026 show policymakers saw elevated uncertainty, with Middle East developments raising inflation risks while also threatening growth and employment. Officials noted higher oil could delay disinflation, and some even flagged that persistent energy inflation could justify tighter policy if it feeds through more broadly.
Why it matters: this is not a clean dovish setup. The Fed is cautious, not comfortable.
3. New Zealand’s central bank stayed on hold, reinforcing the global “wait and see” regime.
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